[Analysis and Opinion.]
Time is precious, especially in a world that moves faster and faster.
We’ve posted several early videos extolling the virtues of free trade and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Over and over we’ve talked about how inter-related all countries are in what is a World economy. However, given recent events in Ukraine and other places one might take the position that the World’s economy is about to become significantly less inter-related.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, China’s crack down on Hong Kong and its renewed and more urgent threats to take Taiwan by force, the ever-increasing amounts of cyber skirmishing, computer hacking, economic spying and the like portend a significant period of political and economic retrenchment to the gray days of the Cold War, if not far worse, and a resort to more nationalistic and protectionist economic practices around the globe. For those of us who bathed in the hope that free trade and open economic policies would increase the wealth of all nations and harbinger an era of freer democratic government in all nations, the events of the last few years, and more particularly the last two months or so, have been a very bitter pill to swallow.
Countries that do not have a free and open press are subject to the lies and distortions of their political leaders. Any leader who leads on the basis of lies and half-truths cannot be trusted. One must always question their motives, because in the end such leaders are virtually always hiding something very wrongful, immoral and illegal. They’ve very probably resorted to strong arm tactics if not violence or worse in the past to get their way. Such leaders only care about themselves, and, in the final analysis only act in their own self-interest. They inherently are not problem solvers who work in good faith in the best interests of their followers and countrymen.
Making friends with and dealing with foreign dictators is a complicated subject that is fraught with potential peril. The subject is way beyond the scope of this short article. While some idealists may argue otherwise, most leaders, even enlightened ones, believe that there are times when one has no choice but to make peace with and deal with foreign dictators—even repressive ones. But if one is forced to do so, clearly, one must keep a very wary eye on them and never let their guard down—especially if said dictator has nuclear weapons. (This is not to mention that one should do what one can to try to get said dictator to institute democratic and civil rights reforms.)
The point we want to make here, however, is that this website is about reason and logic. There always, however, has to be a sense of balance in anything, and in this instance perhaps we weren’t quite as balanced as we should have been in our belief in free trade. Real politics should have made us far more wary of the motives of China, Russia, and a few other foreign actors. Too often, they’ve engaged in corporate spying, and internet misdeeds to gain political and economic advantage over the West. And, as noted Ukraine and Taiwan (not to mention a few other international flashpoints) have brought political tensions to a point not seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Hence, our observation that international business and the World economy may be in for a big change in the next few years, if not beyond. I’m sure that any academic who has written a textbook on international trade and/or international business is very busy trying to revise and/or figure out what their next edition will say. But we at reasonandbalance.com will have to take a step back and reconsider our position on trade and other international issues, and probably adopt a case by case, country by country approach.
The foregoing is emphatically not to imply that free trade is a bad thing. If adopted and reasonably employed without manipulation to suit some ulterior and evil purpose, free trade should be an economic practice that benefits all nations. (In an earlier video concerning David Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage, we demonstrated how this occurs.) Unfortunately, the leaders of a few major powers have improperly used free trade as a means to lure Western nations into a false sense of security over what the true motives of said powers were in engaging in free trade. Apparently, the increased standard of living of their citizens was not enough for certain scheming foreign dictators. Instead, their ultimate purpose appears to have been to gain a political advantage over and to dominate and subjugate others, by force and economic manipulation.
In concluding, we should note that for the reasons alluded to above, no American political leader, who relies consistently on half-truths and falsehoods should ever be trusted to take over the reins of power in this country. One simply cannot trust leaders who consistently lie and who are only interested in their own self-interest and power.
David Dixon Lentz May 2, 2022 revised May 5, 2022
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