Power Focused Voters v. the Facts
[Opinion and Analysis]
In the last few days a couple of very short but important articles have been published.
Below is a direct quote from an article written by Sarah K. Burris of the Raw Story dated either December 31, 2023 or January 1, 2024. What she says rings true and it makes one seriously wonder why recent polls show President Biden trailing former President Trump in a still-hypothetical 2024 election rematch.
The following is a direct quote from Ms. Burris’ article:
“The Wall Street Journal is known for its far-right leanings, but on New Year’s Eve associate editor John Bussey revealed to Fox viewers that the top issue in 2024 will likely be the economy, and Joe Biden is winning.
“He began by citing former President Donald Trump’s criminal prosecutions he’ll be facing in 2024 after already being found to have sexually abused E. Jean Carroll by a civil court.
“This may also weigh on the undecided voters,” said Bussey. “But primary — first and foremost issue for voters is going to be the economy. It always is — pocketbook issues. And in that regard, President Biden is going to have a better and better story to tell as the year unfolds. It’s a strong economy now. Inflation is coming down. The interest rates are coming down. The job market is strong. They’re going to be pounding on that over the next ten months.”
“The host tried to cut him off, asking if the numbers would get better fast enough for everyday Americans to feel them,” implying that most families don’t detect the positive turn in the economy.
“Yeah, that’s the critical question, isn’t it? I mean, the presumption is that six months before an election, the voter has kind of made up their mind. While we’re not quite there at six months. And inflation caused by the pandemic, not by the Trump administration nor the Biden administration, but by the supply-chain shortages from the pandemic — that inflation is still with us. Prices are 19 percent higher than they were before the pandemic hit, caused by those pandemic-related supply chain problems. So that’s going to weigh on the voters’ minds. But they’re also going to see more discounts in stores. Gas prices are way down. Inflation is one-third of what it was at its peak. Interest rates dropping. Mortgage rates dropping. We’ll see if four months is going to be fast enough.”
Juxtaposed against the foregoing we then have a very disturbing article by Lauren Irwin in The Hill dated 10/18/23. In it she cites the following alarming statistics.
“Forty-one percent of Biden supporters say they believe people who support the Republican party and its ideologies have become “so extreme in what they want that it is acceptable to use violence to stop them from achieving their goals.” Likewise, 38 percent of Trump supporters say it is OK to use violence to stop Democrats from achieving their goals.
“The poll found that shares of both Biden and Trump supporters are open to using undemocratic means to achieve the party’s ideals.
“A significant share of respondents question if democracy is no longer a viable system of governance; 31 percent of Trump supporters said America should explore alternative forms of government to ensure stability and progress, compared to 24 percent of Biden supporters.
“The survey was conducted from Aug. 25 to Sept. 11 with 2,008 registered voters. It has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.”
So what’s the relationship between the two stories?
Well, if we assume that both Biden and Trump have 45 percent support of all voters, then that means that roughly about 35 % of all voters support the use of violence to stop the opposing party from achieving their goals. It also means that 25 percent of all voters believe that democracy may no longer be a viable system of governance. Moreover, these folks are open to exploring alternative (presumably non-democratic) forms of government.
These are both astounding and alarming statistics and cause for great worry. And Americans had better start taking a long hard look at themselves in the mirror. Americans are not accustomed to experiencing the level of domestic violence or the amount of chaos that would result if those folks acted on their inclinations.
More to the point, one has to wonder if any of these voters who appear to have violent propensities would ever take the time to consider very important factors like the ones discussed below. Or, facts be damned, is it just a question of beating the other party or electing their own party’s candidate?
Wouldn’t it be better if politicians, and their voters, focused more on the way to actually solve problems than to worry exclusively about whether their party or the opposing party is in power? And,if problem solving is, in fact preferrable, does that not entail a recognition of reality and the fact that a substantial number of voters disagree on many issues and to take that into account in proposing and working out solutions? In short, isn’t a willingness to compromise absolutely crucial to the maintenance of a civilized and democratic society—one where everyone has at least some input on election day as to the direction the country will take? And doesn’t actual problem solving require that an objective determination of facts be made so that proposed solutions actually address the actual problems being confronted?
And beyond all the foregoing, are not news services and publications that constantly, exaggerate, slant or misstate the facts to suit the views of their ownership doing this country an incredible disservice? Yes, the First Amendment is a fundamental and vital right that must be maintained in a healthy democracy. But too often, the right of free speech is abused by significant swaths of the news media. Fox News in particular actually has had a $780 million consent judgment entered against it largely for misreporting facts pertaining to vote counting in the 2020 election. Moreover, we know that a second similar lawsuit is currently pending against Fox.*** What could be more important than accurate reporting regarding the election of the President of the United States in an election as important as 2020 was? And to engage in intentional misreporting is a sin that is very probably the worst sin committed in the history of American journalism. It’s no wonder the general public always seems at each other’s throat.
This is serious stuff but Fox has always had, and to this day still has, the most viewers over any competing news organization left or right; and by a large margin. Its viewers apparently don’t care about Fox’s willingness to go improperly overboard in selling its managements opinions, their viewers just want to hear views and opinions that support their own. Yes, CNN and MSNBC tilt a little progressive in their reporting. However, at least they’ve never been shown to be intentionally misreporting the facts. Regarding the 2020 vote count, Fox has.
What’s so interesting, yet again very alarming, many trial lawyers will tell you that if a witness is shown to be lying about one fact on the witness stand, that often the jury will discount everything else that witness has to say. Apparently, that’s not true of Fox and its viewers. The point being, that politicians and voters who are only interested in electing their guy and, just as importantly, keeping opposing candidates out of office are more interested in acquiring and maintaining power than in solving society’s problems. That’s because, in a democracy solving society’s problems requires recognition of the facts, recognition of the reasonable needs of others, recognition that compromise is almost always required and then being willing to meet the other party half-way.
So the question is: Will power-focused politicians and their supporters (and there are a lot of them) even consider facts like the following:
As of November of 2023, the U.S. Department of Labor reports that the unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. According to Investopedia:
“Many modern economists agree that some unemployment is necessary to avoid inflation. Temporary unemployment can also allow workers time to move between jobs, go to school or otherwise improve their skills. In the real world, an unemployment rate of 5% or lower is often considered full employment. This level of unemployment prevents inflation and lets workers move between jobs, but is low enough that those wanting full-time work should be able to find some kind of full-time job.”
The five percent unemployment figure cited by Investopedia is indeed what many academics and business types have used as the rule of thumb “full employment rate” for many years. Use of the 5% rate as being full employmen recognizes that zero unemployment is a goal that is impossible to reach because there will always be people at least temporarily out of work, if they move, or if they transition from one job to the next. For example, recent college graduates often don’t have a job the minute they graduate. Businesses sometimes fail and their workers have to find new jobs. Even if they find one within a few weeks or so they are technically unemployed for at least some period of time. All of which of course means that President Biden has, at least some basis for claiming success in achieving achieving what is technically known as full employment.
Then there is the question of inflation. According to Trading Economics in November of 2023 the inflation rate in the U.S. was 3.1 %. This is a big drop from the 9.1% inflation rate we saw in June of 2022. ** So, here again President Biden has some basis to brag.
So, why is Biden trailing in all of these polls?
Could it be that everyone is feeling less job secure because of things like Artificial Intelligence? Clearly AI is going to cause widespread reorganization in the workforce—meaning that people will lose their job and many will have to re-train to find and/or keep their job. This clearly creates widespread uncertainty and anxiety in the American workforce. And, these feelings of anxiety can overwhelm statistics showing low unemployment and low inflation. But should Biden get the credit for AI or bear the responsibility for the anxiety created by AI? Probably not.
The same can be said of the newer “gig” economy. People don’t have as much job security as they once had. Again this might well create a feeling of unease that cause people to not sufficiently appreciate what is actually some pretty good news. But again does Biden get the credit for or bear the responsibility for today’s gig economy? Again, probably not because in most respects the gig economy is a function of quickly changing technology and foreign competition.
A more legitimate concern might be that in the first couple of years of the Biden Presidency inflation increased substantially, creating a situation where over the last several years price levels rose to levels that household incomes could not keep up with and that those higher price levels are still causing a certain level of pain even though the rate of inflation is now receding. (The end notes below touch upon this issue in a little more detail.)
Then there are non-economic considerations that may legitimately affect poll numbers. How much credit or blame should Biden and/or Trump get for the war in Ukraine? The conflict in Gaza? What about the very pressing immigration problem? In other articles we’ve touched upon the complexities pertaining to the war in Ukraine and Gaza.
On the important immigration question, it is probable that most voters know it’s a problem. However, do voters really understand exactly how Trump dealt with it versus how Biden is handling it? The scope and complexity of the immigration issue is mind boggling simply because effectively dealing with it affects not only the situation at the border, but also much of U.S. foreign policy especially as it pertains to Latin America. Moreover, the immigration problem affects the availability of domestic programs and services for illegal aliens and even state budgets are affected. And beyond all of the foregoing, now Constitutional issues are arising because of questions concerning the ability of state governments to implement their own border protection policies which might conflict with federal law. The point, however, is that the complexity of the issue is difficult for anyone to comprehend and one wonders if voters are getting the factual information they need to objectively make informed choices and/or whether the immigration issue isn’t one where power focused politicians and their supporters will manipulate situation so as to make anything any Democratic or Republican administration does, subject to political manipulation if not sabotage. After all for the power hungry its not about solving the immigration problem, it’s about staying in or acquiring power.
The bottom line is democracy is in danger. The more politicians and voters focus on power and not on realistic problem solving the more dangerous the situation will become for everyone. Hopefully, this article has provided some factual basis to promote the healthy and rational debate necessary to solve this nation’s problems and thus maintain our cherished democracy.
David Dixon Lentz
January 2, 2024
(© Copyright 2024; David Dixon Lentz; All Rights Reserved.)
————————– END NOTES
**. Inflation and unemployment are in many ways linked. Reasonandbalance has published several Youtube videos on this subject. Although they are a few years old they still remain valid in most respects. However, to simplify, extremely low unemployment rates often cause or precede higher periods of inflation. There are technical reasons for this. Moreover, there are many factors that are beyond the control of any President (including Trump and/or Biden) that cause or contribute to inflation and/or unemployment. The biggest factors that cause or contribute to the overall level of inflation and to a large extent, the level of employment are: (i) monetary policy (which more recently is really an interest rate policy) which is controlled by the Federal Reserve (not the President or Congress), and (ii) fiscal policy, which are the taxing and spending policies passed by Congress, which of course, ultimately requires approval of the President. Naturally, if the nation’s fiscal policy (which is really a joint concoction of what the President and Congress agree to) allows the federal government to operate with increasing budget deficits (federal debt) then, U.S. government borrowing needs will, in many, if not most instances, push interest rates up. If interest rates go up, then inflation and perhaps even unemployment will very likely go up as well. It’s a hotly debated point, but some, particularly progressive economists and politicians, argue that fiscal stimulus ( that is, deficit spending by the government) can, if federal funds are spent correctly, actually create jobs (thereby reducing unemployment) and improve the economy. Biden economics adopts such a stimulative approach in creating many of its governmental programs particularly those relating to addressing the nation’s infrastructure and environmental (green energy) concerns.
Moreover, and in addition to the foregoing, both inflation and unemployment can be affected by externalities such as war, famine, oil embargoes, disease and the like. For example the war in Ukraine greatly disrupted the world’s supply of Wheat causing price increases in many foodstuffs that consist of wheat. Oil prices are affected by what foreign organizations and countries such as OPEC and the Russians do. Covid also played havoc for many months and thus created supply chain issues for many goods and services. For example, computer chips which are a basic component of many things including cars and trucks could not be obtained because Covid affected supply chains worldwide for many months. If the supply of anything is disrupted it will cause the price of that product to increase. Democrats would argue that it is these types of problems that caused the higher inflation rates in the early part of the Biden Administration.
Simply put, no President (whether Biden, Trump or their predecessors) has total control over either inflation or unemployment. In fact the amount of direct control that a President has over inflation and/or unemployment is subject to debate. And voters should remember this fact when they hear politicians make claims on the campaign trail. But Presidents clearly have more affect on those statistics than anyone except, many would argue, members of the Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve. (Reasonandbalance also did videos on the Federal Reserve and its ability to control interest rates, inflation, unemployment and monetary policy.)
One final point is worth mentioning. Economics is a field which is constantly evolving. There are a variety of reasons for this but a big one is that the world economy is changing more and more quickly. Another one is that, unlike what many economic models assume, human beings do not always act rationally in making economic decisions. Often, emotion and consumer psychology comes into play. In any event, economists often engage in good faith disagreements with each other and economics is sometimes as much art and educated guesswork as it is science.
*** The consent judgment was entered against Fox by Dominion Voting Systems. At least one other case, by Smartmatic, is still pending against Fox and other right wing media outlets again alleging that Fox and others lied about the validity of the machines counting votes in the 2020 Presidential election.