Generations Y & Z; Hang Democrats? ICE Deportations

 

OPINION and ANALYSIS:

Trump wants Senator Mark Kelly and other Democratic members of Congress lynched for stating what military manuals say.  Namely, that soldiers, sailors, Marines and Air Force personnel don’t have to obey illegal commands.  Threatening to prosecute and  then hang members of the opposition party because of the expression of a political opinion is unheard of.  Has Trump crossed the line?

Beyond the foregoing, given that it’s Thanksgiving our owner provides a three minute video containing words of wisdom for Generations Y and Z– all in the hopes of bringing some sense of sanity back into America’s political arena.

Keeping the presentation to the 3 minute short format limitation imposed by Youtube obviously creates challenges when explaining or arguing about complex matters. Generalizations and overly simplified assertions become  a sometimes unfortunate necessity. One that we can think of regarding the Generation Y and Z video relates to our assertion that if you’re opinion, argument or proposed policy is superior you shouldn’t need to resort to force or violence, that the better argument always wins in an open, free and fair debate where no one is going to be penalized or harmed for expressing an opinion or a change in policy. In other words, for a debate to be free and fair one side or the other cannot intimidate or coerce the other. Revolutionaries, including our own, might object to that assertion. However it should be kept in mind that this America, we have a ballot box, due process rights, and a representative democracy with a Constitution that protects the rights of minorities. Unlike the situation faced by George Washington and other American revolutionaries, where a King had a standing army occupying the Colonies, all debate wasn’t truly free and fair in Colonial times.  Modern day debates here in America are freer and fairer than anywhere else in the World. Debate can never be free and fair if for example there is a significant likelihood that someone will be penalized for expressing their true opinion. By the same token debates are never open free and fair if the position of one side or the other is twisted, distorted or obfuscated by the other.

Moreover, the superior argument won’t win in situations where the deciding party is biased in some way. If the deciding party is biased, frustration, and perhaps violence (perhaps justified) is likely to occur if fundamental and/or important rights are being wrongfully ignored. This is where having Constitutional Rights, the courts, notions of due process all become extremely important because they help to assure that  all decisions are fair and comply with laws promulgated by duly elected representatives of the people. All of this is indicative of the beauty of democracy. Representative democratic systems like that in the United States, provide the most effective means of providing mechanisms to assure that debate is free, open and fair and that decisions comply with the law. Moreover, if the law needs to be changed voters can choose representatives who will enact the changes that they want.  This is far less likely in a dictatorship, where laws are made solely to protect and advance the interests of the dictator and open, free and fair debate is not permitted because  all dictatorships become  inherently repressive.

Regarding related vitally important matters…..

It is beyond disheartening.  It is startling and crushing for folks who’ve been taught since kindergarden to love and cherish democracy, who’ve had relatives fight and die in North Africa, Sicily, Italy, in Normandy and in France and Germany generally (circa 1941 to 1945 fighting fascism and the Nazis) to witness so many Americans support and twice vote to elect  a convicted criminal,  (i) who had so much to do with instigating the insurrection that occurred at the Capitol on January 6th 2021 (and thus proven that he will ignore valid election results), (ii)  whose had so many respected Republicans and former of his own department heads denounce him as a would be dictator, and (iii) who, given his labeling of Antifa as a terrorist group obviously embraces fascism.  And all of this despite the fact that when Joe Biden left office the inflation rate was under 3 percent and the unemployment rate was around 4.1%, both of which are very good numbers.

 

But beyond the foregoing, the horror doesn’t end there.  Now we see a masked right wing modern day Gestapo, known more commonly as ICE, rounding up and terrorizing immigrants and U.S. citizens alike. Plus, the beyond alarming callup of the National Guard pursuant to fictious emergencies (made up by Trump) all so that America’s citizenry is now surrounded by troops and law enforcement officials supporting a fascist-friendly regime.   The deployment of troops within the borders of the U.S.is something the framers of our Constitution feared and wished to avoid.

 

Given the above, is there not, in fact, a genuine risk, that Trump has or will issue unlawful orders to the military?  The opinion here is that anyone who would answer in the negative: (a) is being willfully ignorant and very probably seeks only to preserve predominantly White political and economic power; (b) is a fascist or fascist sympathizer; or (c) is ignorant because (i) of decades long brainwashing by Fox and other right wing news organizations, or (ii) they don’t care about politics or the news at all and are apolitical.  But the major point is that the Democrats who informed the military of the basic outline of the law, namely, that the military is not required to follow illegal orders, is not a criminal offense, let alone a matter justifying the death penalty.  It was an expression  (arguably protected by the First Amendment) of a totally justifiable worry given the track record of the Trump Administration that Trump may in fact issue unlawful orders in an effort to remain in power unlawfully.

The unspoken subtext to all of the foregoing, is that America is now facing a choice:  Follow the Fascist philosophy of the Trump Administration; or to retain our cherished democracy.  In short, Trump has no intention of obeying the Constitution.   He was not and is not qualified to be President and should be impeached and removed from office.

NOTE:  Regarding the alleged need for ICE and mass deportations the following is very relevant information. Although not directly discussed in the videos, we include it here because of some of the deportation related comments we got in the above videos. While there is no question that border states such as Texas, Arizona, California and New Mexico undoubtedly shoulder a disproportionately large burden of the immigration problem, and for that reason deserve more help and support from the federal government), the information below was/is relevant to show Trump’s dangerous habit of exaggerating problems to dream up emergencies in order to allow him to seize more power  (We note  here that President Biden had reached an agreement with Congressional Republicans in very early 2024 on the way to better secure the southern border, but then candidate Trump vetoed the idea for the totally selfish (and very unpatriotic) reason of wanting to keep the issue alive for the 2024 Presidential campaign).  Moreover, because we need to solve the coming social security solvency crises, and thus need to immediately start acquiring more “workers” (from the only available source– immigration) to finance the increasing number of retirees, what follows shows that (i) undocumented immigrants are generally more law abiding than the average American;  (ii) that Trump mislead voters when he said on the campaign trail that he was only going to deport criminals (because over 70 percent of all detainees have no criminal records) and (ii) that with perhaps one or two exceptions for problem cities in the southwest, that it is highly doubtful that we need National Guard troops and masked ICE agents roaming all over our cities to solve an otherwise manageable problem using traditional (pre-Trump) methods.

On November 28, 2025 ChatGPT 5.1 (whom we refer to as “Rx”) said:

Most Important Evidence

  1. Texas Statewide Criminal Conviction Data (the gold standard)

Texas is the only state that tracks criminal convictions by immigration status for every offender.

Major findings:

  • Undocumented immigrants are 37–45% less likely to be convicted of a crime than native-born Americans.
  • This includes:
    • Lower felony conviction rates
    • Lower homicide arrest rates
    • Lower violent-crime conviction rates

This comes from studies published by the Cato Institute, using Texas Department of Public Safety data.

What we do know (recent data)

  • As of September 21, 2025, of 59,762 people held in ICE detention, 42,755 — about 71.5% — had no criminal conviction. TracReports+1
  • A broader dataset, as of November 16, 2025, shows about 73.6% of detainees (of 65,135 total) had no criminal conviction. TracReports
  • According to a recent analysis, “fewer than half of ICE arrests under Trump are convicted criminals.” Stateline+1
  • During Trump’s second term (as of 2025), ICE arrest data indicates 40% of “nearly 112,000 arrests” from January 20 through mid-year were of people “with criminal convictions.” Maryland Matters+1

Bottom line: A large majority of people recently detained by ICE are not convicted criminals — indeed, a majority have no criminal conviction.

So was Trump’s statement accurate?

No, David.
Trump said the focus would be criminal aliens only, but:

  • The policies targeted all undocumented immigrants.
  • The data shows most people arrested or detained were not criminals.
  • The largest group deported/detained had no criminal convictions at all.

So the rhetoric (“only criminals”) did not match the reality (a broad, indiscriminate enforcement strategy).

…..the best current, honest, evidence-based “guesstimate” is:

  • Total unauthorized immigrants (2025):13–14 million
  • With any criminal conviction:0.7–1.1 million (about 5–8% of the total)
    • Felony convictions:0.25–0.45 million
    • Misdemeanor-only / less serious:0.45–0.75 million

Which means, in plain language:

Well over 9 out of 10 people here without authorization probably do not have a felony record, and the vast majority have no criminal record at all.

——————————————- 

EDITOR’s NOTE:  Below is the complete ICE/Deportation chat with ChatGPT on November 28, 2025:

Rx. Didn’t we have a Chat about Trump deporting illegal aliens. In it we discussed how many “criminals” (with prior criminal records) there were in the U.S. versus the number of undocumented aliens that Trump was in fact deporting. Can you update that please

ChatGPT said:

Good question, David. I revisited recent publicly-available data on the enforcement and deportation efforts under Donald J. Trump (and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement — “ICE”) to update what we know, though it’s still a messy picture. Here’s what I found — what seems fairly solid, what’s still disputed, and where the numbers don’t support the rhetoric.

✅ What we do know (recent data)

  • As of September 21, 2025, of 59,762 people held in ICE detention, 42,755 — about 71.5% — had no criminal conviction. TracReports+1
  • A broader dataset, as of November 16, 2025, shows about 73.6% of detainees (of 65,135 total) had no criminal conviction. TracReports
  • According to a recent analysis, “fewer than half of ICE arrests under Trump are convicted criminals.” Stateline+1
  • During Trump’s second term (as of 2025), ICE arrest data indicates 40% of “nearly 112,000 arrests” from January 20 through mid-year were of people “with criminal convictions.” Maryland Matters+1

Bottom line: A large majority of people recently detained by ICE are not convicted criminals — indeed, a majority have no criminal conviction.

⚠️ What about the claim that Trump was “deporting criminal aliens” or “the worst of the worst”?

  • The administration often highlights the subset of deportees with serious criminal records (e.g., murderers, gang members, sex offenders) when promoting border enforcement. CBS News+1
  • But data suggests that despite high overall detention and deportation numbers, the share of detainees with no criminal conviction has grown — indicating widespread “collateral arrests” of non-criminal undocumented immigrants. The Guardian+2The Washington Post+2
  • As one analysis puts it: “The group with no criminal record is now the largest group in ICE detention.” The Guardian+1

So while ICE continues to remove individuals with criminal records (including serious crimes), the majority of those being detained — and presumably deported — under current policies lack criminal convictions.

🎯 What we still don’t know — and what is often mischaracterized

  • Population-wide crime rates among undocumented immigrants: There remains no reliable, up-to-date national dataset conclusively showing that undocumented immigrants (as a group) commit more crimes than the native-born population. Many of the stats cited by enforcement-supporters mix arrests, charges, and convictions, which leads to misleading interpretations. ABC News+1
  • Exact share of deportations vs. detentions vs. arrests: Not everyone arrested or detained is deported; not all detainees have criminal records. Additionally, some with criminal records are released, as the records show under the first Trump administration. Cato Institute+1
  • What “criminal” means under different categories: Many detainees with criminal records were convicted of minor offenses (e.g., traffic violations), not violent or serious crimes. TracReports+2The Guardian+2

That means that even among “criminal aliens,” the severity of the underlying offense varies widely — complicating any claim that the deportation wave is primarily removing “violent criminals and gang members.”

📉 What this update implies, compared to earlier discussions

In our earlier conversation (when we debated the number of “criminals” among deported/undocumented aliens vs. total undocumented aliens), we leaned on the idea that the portion of undocumented immigrants with criminal records is likely modest compared to the total undocumented population — and that many deportations may not involve criminals at all. The new data tends to reinforce that conclusion: among those detained (and presumably many deported), non-criminals now form the majority.

Put another way: the aggressive deportation campaign under Trump appears to sweep in a broad swath of undocumented immigrants — not only those with serious criminal histories, but many with no criminal history at all.

If you like, David, Rx can try to produce a “snapshot table” — comparing estimated total undocumented immigrant population in the U.S., number/percentage with criminal convictions (estimated), and number/percentage of deportations/removals under Trump (with conviction status breakdown) — to help us re-assess relative scale.
Do you want me to build that table for you now?

You said:

Didn’t Trump say he was only going to deport aliens who had criminal records as opposed to anyone who was “undocumented”

ChatGPT said:

David, yes — Trump repeatedly said he would focus on deporting immigrants with criminal records, but his policies and results did not match those statements. Here’s the clean, high-school-level breakdown you asked for, with a little taste of humor included.

✅ What Trump said

Throughout both campaigns and both terms, Trump made statements like:

  • “We’re going to deport the criminals first.”
  • “We’re getting the bad hombres out.”
  • “My focus is on criminal illegal aliens.”
  • “We’re only going after the criminals.”

This messaging was meant to reassure the public that enforcement would be targeted, not sweeping.

❌ What actually happened (based on ICE data)

Despite the rhetoric, Trump’s policies — especially in 2017 and again beginning in 2025 — removed most of the restrictions that limited ICE to targeting criminals. The results:

  1. The majority of ICE detainees had no criminal record.

Recent data (2025):

  • 73.6% of people in ICE detention have no criminal conviction.
  • This is the largest group detained under Trump.
  1. Less than half of ICE arrests under Trump involved people with criminal convictions.
  • For 2025, about 40% of ICE arrests were people with a criminal record.
  • Meaning 60% were not criminals, despite the “criminals-only” rhetoric.
  1. Criminal priorities were officially removed.

Early in his first term, Trump revoked the Obama-era policy that prioritized people with serious criminal convictions.
Instead, everyone who was undocumented became a target, regardless of criminal record.

In plain English:
If you overstayed a visa, crossed years ago, or had never been arrested before — you were still considered a “priority.”

  1. Many of the so-called “criminal aliens” had minor offenses.

Even among those counted as “criminal,” a large share were:

  • traffic offenses
  • license issues
  • immigration-related offenses
  • misdemeanors

Not “bad hombres.”

🎯 So was his statement accurate?

No, David.
Trump said the focus would be criminal aliens only, but:

  • The policies targeted all undocumented immigrants.
  • The data shows most people arrested or detained were not criminals.
  • The largest group deported/detained had no criminal convictions at all.

So the rhetoric (“only criminals”) did not match the reality (a broad, indiscriminate enforcement strategy).

If you want, Rx can pull together a quick side-by-side chart showing:

  • What Trump said
  • What his policies actually directed
  • What ICE data actually shows

Just say the word.

You said:

Are there any current estimates of how many illegal aliens that now live in the U.S. actually have prior criminal records

ChatGPT said:

Good question, David. I’m not aware of any reliable, up-to-date estimate — by independent researchers or government — that definitively answers: “How many of the people now living in the U.S. illegally have prior criminal records?” Here’s what we do know — and where the gaps remain.

✅ What we can estimate (with caveats)

  • The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) used older data (from a 2012 government report) to estimate that roughly 820,000 of the roughly 11 million unauthorized (“illegal”) immigrants then in the U.S. had a criminal conviction — about 7–8% of the total. migrationpolicy.org+1
    • Within that group, MPI’s breakdown: ~300,000 had felony convictions; ~390,000 had serious misdemeanors. migrationpolicy.org+1
  • That 7–8% estimate has been widely cited. CMS+1
  • But — that data is more than a decade old, and doesn’t distinguish minor offenses vs. serious offenses; also doesn’t cover immigration status over time. It’s a rough, historical snapshot, not a real-time “current-unauthorized-population-with-records” gauge.

📉 What newer research suggests — and why it’s hard to update the estimate

  • Studies of actual crime rates suggest that unauthorized immigrants (as a group) engage in criminal behavior at lower rates than native-born Americans. For example, a 2020 study (from the Cato Institute) based on Texas data found that undocumented immigrants had a criminal-conviction rate roughly 45% below that of native-born Texans. Cato Institute+1
  • A broader analysis (2024) concluded that immigrants overall — including undocumented — are “significantly less likely to be incarcerated” than U.S-born individuals. Congress.gov+1
  • Because only one U.S. state (Texas) systematically tracks arrest/conviction data by immigration status, those findings may not generalize nationally. Cato Institute+2PMC+2
  • Meanwhile, enforcement data from the relevant federal agency (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement / ICE) shows that among people detained or arrested for immigration reasons in recent years, a majority had no prior criminal conviction. TracReports+2The Washington Post+2

Thus, while we have snapshots — and even a ballpark of “7–8% (as of 2012)” — we lack any trustworthy 2025-era “current unauthorized immigrants with criminal records” percentage.

🎯 Why we can’t give a current precise number

  1. Data limitations: Only a few jurisdictions (notably Texas) track criminal convictions by immigration status — and that won’t include everyone. Cato Institute+1
  2. Mobility and turnover: The unauthorized immigrant population changes over time (arrivals, deportations, status changes), so older estimates quickly get stale.
  3. Variation in offenses: “Criminal record” may range from minor misdemeanors to serious felonies — lumping them together muddies meaningful analysis.
  4. Privacy and documentation issues: Many convictions may occur outside the U.S., or under names/identities not easily correlated to immigration-status tracking, making comprehensive screening almost impossible.

If you want, Rx can try to assemble a “best-current-guess” range using the latest public-data (2024–2025) plus reasonable assumptions. It won’t be a “hard number,” just a plausible estimate — with all assumptions clearly spelled out. Want me to run those calculations now?

You said:

Yes please do so. If you can refine your response by breaking down felons versus those who’ve just been convicted of misdemeanors that would be appreciated

ChatGPT said:

Thought for 41s

Short answer, David: there’s no official 2025 number, but using the best available research and some transparent assumptions, a reasonable current estimate is:

  • Total unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. (2025-ish): about 13–14 million
  • With any criminal conviction: about 0.7–1.1 million (roughly 5–8%)
    • Felony conviction: about 250,000–450,000
    • Misdemeanors / lesser offenses: about 450,000–750,000

So, ballpark: think around 900,000 unauthorized immigrants with some kind of criminal record, of whom roughly one-third are felons and about two-thirds are misdemeanor-only or minor-offense cases.

Below is how I got there.

  1. Step 1 – How many unauthorized immigrants are there now?

Recent estimates:

Working range for 2025:
I’ll use 12.5–14.5 million, with a central “best guess” of 13.5 million.

  1. Step 2 – What percent have any criminal conviction?

The best hard estimate is still from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), using DHS data from the early 2000s–2013 period:

  • They estimated about 820,000 unauthorized immigrants with criminal convictions out of roughly 11 million unauthorized immigrants at that time — about 7–8%. migrationpolicy.org+1
  • Within that 820,000, they estimated:
    • 300,000 with felony convictions
    • 390,000 with serious misdemeanors
    • The remainder with other (less serious) offenses. migrationpolicy.org+1

More recent work:

  • Texas data (the only state that systematically tracks immigration status in criminal stats) shows illegal immigrants have lower conviction rates than native-born Americans. Cato Institute+2Cato Institute+2
  • National studies (e.g., PNAS) find undocumented immigrants have substantially lower felony crime rates than native-born citizens. PNAS

This suggests that the share of unauthorized immigrants with a conviction is unlikely to be higher today than MPI’s earlier 7–8%; if anything, it might be similar or slightly lower—especially with many new arrivals whose U.S. criminal “exposure time” is relatively short.

So for 2025, a reasonable working range is:

  • Lower bound: 5% with a conviction
  • Upper bound: 7.5% (MPI’s earlier estimate)
  • Central guess: ~6.5%
  1. Step 3 – Turn that into actual numbers

Using 13.5 million as the central population estimate:

Central estimate (6.5% with convictions)

  • 13,500,000 × 6.5%
    = ~877,500 → round to ~880,000 with some criminal conviction

Range

Using the population and percentage ranges:

  • Low end: 12.5M × 5% ≈ 625,000
  • High end: 14.5M × 7.5% ≈ 1,087,500 (~1.1M)

So:

Best current national range:
~0.6 to ~1.1 million unauthorized immigrants with any criminal conviction
Central “best guess”: ~0.9 million (about 1 in 15)

  1. Step 4 – Felonies vs. misdemeanors

MPI’s breakdown of the 820,000 convicted unauthorized immigrants in its earlier study: migrationpolicy.org+1

  • Felonies: 300,000 → about 36–37%
  • Serious misdemeanors: 390,000 → about 48%
  • Other / less serious offenses: remainder (~15–16%)

Assuming (with all the usual caveats) that the felony vs. misdemeanor mix is roughly similar today, and applying these proportions to the central estimate of ~880,000 with convictions:

  • Felony convictions (~36–37%):
    ≈ 320,000 unauthorized immigrants
  • Serious misdemeanors (~48%):
    ≈ 420,000
  • Other, less serious offenses (~15–16%):
    ≈ 140,000

To be honest and conservative, I’d express it as ranges:

  • Felony convictions: about 250,000–450,000
  • Misdemeanors / lesser offenses (combined): about 450,000–750,000

Again, that’s within the broader 0.6–1.1 million with some conviction range.

  1. Sanity check against current enforcement data

Enforcement numbers support the idea that most unauthorized immigrants do not have convictions:

  • As of late 2025, about 73.6% of people in ICE detention had no criminal conviction; the remaining 26% include many with only minor offenses. Econofact+3TracReports+3TracReports+3
  • A recent analysis finds that only about 5% of ICE detainees have violent convictions, and about 70% of people deported from ICE custody in November 2025 had no criminal convictions at all. Cato Institute

Detainees are not representative of the entire unauthorized population — if anything they’re more likely to have records because enforcement tends to focus on them. So if even detention/deportation cohorts are mostly non-criminal, it’s reasonable that the overall unauthorized population has a lower conviction share than MPI’s old 7–8% upper bound, making the 5–7.5% range for today quite plausible.

  1. Big-picture takeaway for your purposes

Putting it all together, the best current, honest, evidence-based “guesstimate” is:

  • Total unauthorized immigrants (2025): ≈ 13–14 million
  • With any criminal conviction: ≈ 0.7–1.1 million (about 5–8% of the total)
    • Felony convictions: ≈ 0.25–0.45 million
    • Misdemeanor-only / less serious: ≈ 0.45–0.75 million

Which means, in plain language:

Well over 9 out of 10 people here without authorization probably do not have a felony record, and the vast majority have no criminal record at all.

If you tell me whether you’re aiming this at a blog post, a speech, or a video script, I can rewrite this into a tight paragraph or two with numbers rounded the way you’d want for public consumption.

You said:

Are “undocumented” aliens more likely than the general population of American citizens to have criminal records, or less?

ChatGPT said:

David, the best available evidence — from multiple independent studies — shows undocumented immigrants are less likely to have criminal records than U.S. citizens.

Here it is in clear, objective terms.

✅ Bottom Line

Undocumented immigrants have lower crime and conviction rates than native-born Americans.

This has been confirmed repeatedly in high-quality studies that use actual conviction and incarceration records — not estimates, not surveys.

📘 Most Important Evidence

  1. Texas Statewide Criminal Conviction Data (the gold standard)

Texas is the only state that tracks criminal convictions by immigration status for every offender.

Major findings:

  • Undocumented immigrants are 37–45% less likely to be convicted of a crime than native-born Americans.
  • This includes:
    • Lower felony conviction rates
    • Lower homicide arrest rates
    • Lower violent-crime conviction rates

This comes from studies published by the Cato Institute, using Texas Department of Public Safety data.

(Independent researchers and even critics acknowledge Texas maintains the only fully comprehensive dataset.)

  1. National-Level Research (multiple independent studies)

PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

A peer-reviewed 2020 study found:

  • Undocumented immigrants are significantly less likely to be arrested for violent crimes than U.S. citizens.
  • They also have lower arrest rates for property crime, drug crime, and overall crime.

National incarceration data

Studies of nationwide incarceration rates show:

  • Unauthorized immigrants are 60–70% less likely to be incarcerated than native-born citizens.

These studies cover multiple years, multiple states, and use Census-based prison counts, not self-reporting.

  1. Meta-analysis overview

When researchers summarize the entire literature:

  • Every major study — left-leaning, right-leaning, or neutral — finds equal or lower crime rates among undocumented immigrants compared to native-born Americans.
  • No reputable data source shows higher criminality among the undocumented population.

🧭 Why the false impression?

Partly because:

  • Political rhetoric often focuses on extreme individual cases.
  • Federal ICE “criminal alien” numbers sometimes count minor offenses, including immigration-related violations and traffic infractions.
  • Enforcement patterns create a visibility bias — deportations of criminals are showcased; deportations of non-criminals are silent.

But the population-level data is clear: undocumented immigrants commit less crime, not more.

📌 Your summary statement (if you need one for a blog, speech, or court brief)

“Every major study — including statewide conviction data from Texas and national incarceration data — shows that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than native-born Americans. In fact, undocumented immigrants are about 40% less likely to be convicted of a crime than U.S. citizens.”