2022 Wrap Up Reasonandbalance.com, Tick's Notes and Tunes

ANALYSIS, OPINION and FUN

We hope everyone’s 2022 was prosperous and happy.

In no particular order here’s how we size up 2022.

This may surprise some but first we will mention ChatGPT. In what to us is the perhaps the scariest story we’ve heard in a long time, a college philosophy professor in the Carolinas caught one of his students using artificial intelligence (AI) software, (which we assume is now widely available to the public), to write a philosophy paper. Based on what we read, specifically about this AI software’s ability to learn and improve its own capabilities, it appears that every time this software does a philosophy (or any other type of paper) it becomes more knowledgeable and thus provides a better work product. It can do its own research. Write its own report. And, even more amazingly, each time it does so, it does it better. What does this mean? No one—repeat no one—regardless of their profession, regardless of how many degrees and how much training they have, should feel confident that their employment is secure for any significant time period going forward. Everyone’s job is, or will be, in jeopardy. The economic and social upheaval that will be caused by AI cannot be imagined. Will AI be used by nations, their militaries, their intelligence communities, law enforcement agencies, large corporations and/or anyone else for that matter to exploit situations to spy on us, repress us, maintain political power, control and/or to gain or maintain some other advantage? Will the balance of power in all things (including those military and commercial) shift at the drop of a hat? In our view, we are on the verge of a new age, one that will be quickly changing and that will test whether we truly care about the welfare of all mankind and the extent to which we believe in equal rights, the rule of law and democracy. More than ever we are going to have to elect honest, responsible and trustworthy politicians.

Ukraine seems to be getting the upper hand in its war against Russian aggression. Regardless of what happens the Ukrainians have done themselves proud. Why does it appear that the Russian people have been misled by the Russian government about Ukraine? Why are so many Russian oligarchs dying under mysterious circumstances? One might ask: Why can’t the parties just agree that Ukraine will not join NATO? Won’t that provide the sufficient security guarantees that Russia says it seeks? Why can’t there just be a referendum held where citizens in Crimea, Donetsk and other Russian occupied areas of Ukraine vote on whether they want to be part of Russia or Ukraine? Silly us. Who would trust the results of a vote overseen exclusively by Russian (or even Ukrainian) occupiers? Can’t a de-militarized area or other rules be created to assure a free, fair and credible vote. While holding a referendum may make some logical sense, what about all the Ukrainians displaced by the Russian in those areas? On top of those who’ve died, millions have been forced to flee or have been forcibly deported by the Russians. Unfortunately, this means that no vote of the current occupants of Russian-occupied areas would reflect the true will of genuine natives. Unfortunately, Putin’s decision-making at the start of the war left no wiggle room or so-called “off ramps” to peacefully resolve the situation. He was just another autocrat, some say dying of cancer, wanting to make his mark on history all while taking the rest of the planet (Russians and everyone else) with him down the path of eternal ethnic distrust, hatred and bloodshed.

Taiwan. A major question here is: Is the leader of China, Xi Jinping, going to follow the path taken by Putin in Ukraine? China says that Taiwan is part of China. Taiwan, which is governed by the enemies of the Maoist takeover of China, insists that it remain independent. We need to do more research on this vitally important subject, but like the situation with Ukraine, modern issues arise because of competing claims decades, if not hundreds of years old by various factions and nations that threaten to drag today’s world into another major conflict between super powers—perhaps even nuclear war. Taiwan is a leader in semi-conductor technology which has vitally important military, commercial and everyday applications that affect a large part of everyday living. And Taiwan sits a few short miles from mainland China. Importantly, it is also situated astride strategic military and commercial shipping lanes. Taiwan has many important commercial trading ties with the U.S., Japan, and the rest of the world. On a daily basis China sends warplanes and naval vessels directly at Taiwan in intimidating displays of force. Meanwhile, the U.S. and perhaps other neighboring Pacific nations as well, stand as either actual or potential guarantors of Taiwanese independence. The outcome of this very dangerous situation has wide-ranging strategic implications that affects the balance of world economic, military and commercial world power.

Immigration. Many folks believe that the Biden administration is not effectively dealing with the illegal immigration problem. This is a vitally important issue. (And we agree with Senator Lindsay Graham, immigration is a national security issue.) While we strongly disagree with the Governors of affected states shipping illegal immigrants to other states, we have to wonder what we’d do if we were overrun with overwhelming numbers of impoverished and desperate people who didn’t speak our language. (We hate to be too descriptive but folks in other states need to better understand what it’s like to deal with a problem that has become overwhelming in some areas of the country, particularly the along the southern border.) And we would probably even agree with those Governors who feel that they have a right to call out the National Guard to guard their states’ borders from illegal immigrants. Why not? Isn’t that an inherent right to keep people off your property? Progressives need to understand that folks don’t like watching their country’s whole culture change right before their very own eyes. No one likes to feel like a stranger in their own country. They don’t care what progressives, liberals and wokies have been taught in college about “peace, love Woodstock”, the world economy, international relations, the U.N. and the like. Too many Americans, particularly White ones, who feel like they made this country what it is, are being pushed to the extreme right (politically speaking) because of the severe cultural change that is being forced upon them by the deluge of both legal and illegal immigrants. Enough is enough, it increasingly seems like the only acceptable course is one that is not at all pretty—and many American are willing to do whatever it will take to stop the flood of foreigners. (And, unfortunately, events of recent years have shown that too many of these disaffected Americans might even turn to authoritarian politicians to get a solution.) America does not owe it to the rest of the world to be a safe haven and/or support everyone that seeks shelter and/or political asylum.

Thankfully, by and large it was a good year for the Constitution, the rule of law (not of men) and democracy in the U.S. The 2022 midterm election results were/are evidence of this. And as far as we’re concerned the maintenance of democracy and its structural underpinnings are about as important as any accomplishments can be on a national level. Let’s just hope (or fingers are crossed) that the newly elected Republican House majority can work with the Senate and President Biden, otherwise, we will have nothing but gridlock and aggravation and further political division in this county. Gridlock only provides justification for those with authoritarian tendencies to justify the need to clean house and get rid of what they will say are dysfunctional democratic procedures and lawmakers. The existence of democracy is a fragile privilege for which everyone must sacrifice by showing a willingness to compromise from time to time—especially on issues that are vital to the continued functioning of a healthy America. Change is inevitable. And, as Queen Elizabeth would say, change must be embraced and dealt with. No one can get what they want all of the time. Let’s just all start by (as President Biden said) treating each other like countrymen instead of adversaries. And let’s jointly find a way to solve problems.

We haven’t eradicated Covid. What more can we say? Thank goodness that at least most people in this country have received some of the Covid shots! Generally, it’s probably fair to say that those who got shots largely trust science, while those who didn’t don’t—or at least they don’t trust science very much. That or they feel no guilt at putting friends and neighbors at risk or they believe in some conspiracy theory about government evil-doing. At this point, (almost 3 years into the pandemic) it looks like vaccines are safe. Our view is that those who have not received at least one shot, have made it more likely that the Covid problem will be around for a lot longer. Our site is reasonandbalance.com. We emphasize the need for fact-based determinations followed by the application of scientific, mathematical, and logical principals (all balanced with some empathy and respect for the frailties of the human condition) in all decision-making. While scientists make mistakes from time to time, and while some are unscrupulous and sometimes, skew study results, most of the time scientists are educated, objective, and very importantly, unbiased problem solvers whose analysis and results are studied, peer-reviewed and duplicated by others in follow-on tests. While folks should have certain rights about what goes into their body, that right cannot trump the right of everyone else to live in a safe environment free of a deadly virus. On the whole, science should and must be trusted most of the time.

Inflation. This is a complicated and important subject that has often overwhelmed many, especially those of limited means, such as the elderly and lower income families. The experts differ as to its causes and what to do about it, but as we write, inflation, while still too high, appears to be moderating somewhat. Supply chain issues, gasoline prices, Covid, the war in Ukraine, OPEC, our relationship with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia, and even the money supply and interest rates (the later being largely controlled by the Federal Reserve) all have some effect on the level of inflation. Stay tuned.

Climate change. Progress is not being made fast enough to address this existential problem. And even if we don’t suffer, our children, grandchildren and beyond surely will. We are all living on one planet, and nations much learn to cooperate on this issue. Sorry, climate-change deniers. The fact that Christmas was so incredibly cold and snowy, doesn’t mean that there is no global warming. Global warming changes weather patterns which affect everything including the direction of weather fronts. That global warming is occurring is confirmed by virtue of the fact that ocean levels are rising and the Arctic is becoming increasingly navigable because ice caps have melted.

We will conclude with a quick supplement to our ongoing articles and videos about the wealth gap, usually widening, both here and abroad. (See David Dixon Lentz’s novel, Rao’s Solution, which is for sale at bookbaby.com.) Of course, if one looks at professional athletes in sports such as soccer, football, baseball, basketball, hockey and the like one cannot help but to be totally mesmerized by the staggering amounts of money earned by these athletes. Now we are seeing the lure of big bucks trickle down to college athletics. While, it is good to see many of the old and more stringent NCAA rules regarding the payment of student athletes go by the wayside, other rule changes are likely to cause some mayhem. Some of the new rules relate to the so-called transfer portal and “name, image and likeness” (NIL) regulations. A case in point could be found just yesterday (12/30/22). The University of Pittsburgh played UCLA in the Sun Bowl. Pitt was missing 8 to 10 of its starters, including its starting quarterback, who elected not to play because they were either transferring to another school or did not want to play because they were saving themselves for the NFL draft. (Obviously, they didn’t want to risk serious injury and thus the loss a huge NFL contract.) Given all of this, one has to wonder how the Sun, or any other bowl for that matter, could stage a competitive game with so many starters on one side not playing. (After all, UCLA was ranked in the top 20 in the county and it appeared that Pitt would field a team that was a mere shell of its former self.) What does all of this portend for the future of all bowl games if so many college athletes abandon their teams in the post season to play elsewhere or to save themselves for the NFL draft by avoiding the risk of injury in a bowl game? While some may point to Pitt’s victory as proof that NIL and transfer portals do not matter, many (including us), will have their doubts, particularly in bowls in which the participants have no chance for an actual national championship. The importance of bowl games with actual national championship implications might well induce the majority of student athletes to stick around and play in those games. However, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens to the college bowl season.

In any event, that’s it for 2022. Happy 2023 everyone !

TUNES:

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Here’s a New Year’s Toast:

To Not Being Fooled by a bunch of Political Baloney !

Well, given the foregoing. We kinda have a hankerin’ for this

Jimmy Fallon, The Who & The Roots